Is Lakers out, Spurs in the Play-In a Possibility?

The Lakers are down bad, but are they down bad enough to miss the Play-In rounds? Can the Spurs sneak in as a result?

The Los Angeles Lakers, set to embark on a four-game road-trip, are ninth in the Western Conference. Their current standing is a massive disappointment, as Vegas gave them the highest preseason odds in the conference to win the 2022 NBA championship.

Things have particularly fallen apart since the calendar flipped to the new year. After winning the first three games of 2022 and rising to a 21-19 record, the Lakers have since gone 8-20. They’re 2-8 over their last ten games, with two 50-point performances by LeBron James bolstering his squad to those two victories.

I feel that the biggest reason for their struggles is that almost everyone on the team is bad at defense. They sport the third-worst defensive rating in their conference over the last 28 games. The players athletic enough to defend don’t have the IQ to do it well consistently and the players with the IQ lack the athleticism to keep up with the opponent.

Additionally, Russell Westbrook is not optimizing his game to be his best for himself or his team. He has the scoring profile of an old-school center yet insists on attempting shots like he’s a three-level scorer. He doesn’t seem to have the desire to change, and the Lakers coaching staff haven’t made any adjustments to how they want him to play, either.

With those glaring issues and their protracted slump, it feels like a real possibility that they could miss not just the playoffs, but the play-in rounds altogether.

I fully understand if you take a glance at the standings and find the previous statement hard to believe. However, I see a path where the Lakers miss the Play-In and are replaced by Coach Gregg Popovich and the 12th-place San Antonio Spurs.

Let’s look again at those standings. There’s the New Orleans Pelicans in 10th place, 1.5 games behind the Lakers. The Pels have gone 5-5 over their last ten games. They’ve been bolstered by the acquisition of guard CJ McCollum; their net rating has improved by 6.2 points (-3.0 to 3.2) since his arrival! There’s a solid chance they could pass up Los Angeles if both team’s trends continue.

Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers sit at 11th. Due to recent regime change, they have clearly decided to tank the remainder of the season. McCollum was dealt away while Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic have been benched due to injury. This leaves Anfernee Simons with even more opportunity to grow as a playmaker. However, it will also likely leave Portland sinking further into the depths of the conference table.

That leaves the Spurs at 12th in the West, three games behind the Lakers. San Antonio is 3-7 over their last 10 games and 11-20 over the same span as the Lakers’ slump. SA’s -1.1 net rating since January 9th also outpaces LA’s -5.4 since that same date. Certainly none of those figures are eye-popping, but they’re still better than the Lakers’ output! The Spurs’ mild trajectory is more than enough to pose a threat to the Lakers.

Tankathon’s Remaining Schedule Strength chart (as of the afternoon of March 16th) also indicates that the Lakers’ final slate won’t be doing them any favors. LAL sports the second-toughest remaining schedule while the Spurs sit at a relatively-breezy 19th. It’s going to take more than some epic LeBron performances for this team to maintain their postseason aspirations. I’m not sure how, but the Lakers have to find a way to dig-in defensively. Westbrook will also have to be much more discerning about when and how to attack the opponent.

Should they fail that mission, the Spurs will find themselves in their second-consecutive play-in tournament. This time, however, they will be led by budding playmaker and newly-minted All-Star Dejounte Murray. Clinching that spot would be a big reward for a team that isn’t the most formidable, but still competes on a nightly basis. It would be a strong way to end a campaign that saw Gregg Popovich become the all-time coaching wins leader.