Spinning the Block on the West Play-In Picture

With the end of the regular season weeks away, how has the fight for the final play-in spots developed since we last checked?

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about the possibility of the Los Angeles Lakers, the preseason favorite to be Western Conference champions, missing the playoffs entirely. Since then, I have been absolutely obsessed with following the race for ninth and tenth place. So let’s take another look at how things have developed since my last post.

Since we last spoke, the San Antonio Spurs have gone 4-1, the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-2, and the Los Angeles Lakers are 2-4. The Spurs record is bolstered by a 107-103 victory on Saturday at New Orleans. However, the Pelicans managed to bounce back from that defeat with a 116-108 home win over the Lakers.

The victors trailed by as many as 23 points in this game. Los Angeles jumped out to a big early lead thanks to LeBron James’ long-distance shooting (six three-pointers in the first half) and some key points off of Pelicans miscues. New Orleans turned things around thanks to a sterling defensive effort led by Herb Jones’ six steals as well as Brandon Ingram (26 points; returning from a 10-game injury absence) and Trey Murphy (21 points) stepping up offensively when called upon.

The Pelicans now have the tiebreaker over the Lakers, as they hold a 2-0 lead in their three-game season series. Coming into the 16th, the standings order was Lakers-Pelicans-Trail Blazers-Spurs. 12 days later, it’s now Pelicans-Lakers-Spurs-Trail Blazers.

All three play-in contenders have performed well offensively. The Lakers have the seventh-best offensive rating over the past 12 days. New Orleans follows up at tenth and the Spurs round out at 15th. The difference-maker is on the defensive end. The Pels have the third-best defensive rating over this span and the Spurs come in ninth. Then all the way down at 29th are the Lakers.

Like before, LeBron James has been responsible for most of LA’s offensive production. He has played in five of the last six games, dropping 36 points or more in the last four. James is averaging 34.0 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 6.8 assists over the past 12 days.

Additionally, Russell Westbrook also deserves credit for the team’s offensive improvement. He entered the 16th with a .433/.277/.670 shooting split. Westbrook has an improved .511/.433/.600 split since then. Free throw struggles aside, he has shown better precision with his offensive attack as of late. Malik Monk has also made positive contributions on offense.

Defensively, however, the Lakers still haven’t found the formula to make things click. They were already 23rd in defensive rating in the 28 games heading into my last article. Somehow, things have got even worse since then.

Things aren’t going to get much easier for LA, either. Per Tankathon’s strength-of-schedule tracker (as of the afternoon of March 28th), the Lakers close out the season with the second-toughest slate. The Spurs sit at 13th while the Pelicans are at 23rd. One of those games happens to be another Pelicans-Lakers tilt on Friday in Los Angeles.

Hot on their trail is a re-invigorated Spurs team that now sees a play-in berth within reach. The biggest difference for them over the last 12 days has been the emergence of Josh Richardson. After arriving in the Alamo City at the trade deadline, Richardson averaged just 7.0 points per game during his first nine games in black-and-silver.

Since then, Richardson has played in four of the Spurs’ last five, averaging 18.8 points per game, tied with Keldon Johnson for second-most on the team. If the trio of Dejounte Murray, Johnson, and Richardson can stay hot while the team overall maintains their defensive intensity, that will apply that much more pressure to those slumping Lakers.

Nevertheless, despite the unmitigated disaster the 2021-22 Lakers have been, it’s just so hard to fathom a team with a healthy LeBron James on it missing the postseason. Something tells me the Lakers will pull out just enough wins to maintain the 10th seed. Meanwhile, the Spurs will suffer a key loss or two that will knock them off pace. However, you better believe I’m going to keep following this race, because a Laker-less postseason remains a strong possibility.